Monday, September 16, 2019

Oil futures prices have jumped more than ten percent due to a recent drone attack in Saudi Arabia that has stopped the production of over fifty percent of the oil that comes out of the country. For more information on the attacks, visit https://www.cnbc.com/ 2019/09/20/oil-drone-attack-damage-revealed-at-saudi-aramco-facility.htmlThe effects of this devastating attack will be felt for weeks, but Saudi Arabia expects to have repairs complete and full production re-established by November. While Saudi Arabia is not the primary oil supplier for the United States, these attacks will have an impact on the short term oil supply and costs in the United States and in markets around the world.  A fifty percent drop in Saudi Arabian oil exports represents an immediate constriction of 8% of the total worldwide oil exports.  For a list of oil exporters and their production levels, see http://www.worldstopexports.com/worlds-top-oil-exports-country/.  The immediate impact to the U.S. markets was an 11% jump in oil prices while the world markets experienced a 13% increase.  Additionally, the immediate loss of 8% of worldwide oil exports for approximately two months is the threat of retaliation against Iran by either Saudi Arabia or the United States.  In response to the attack, the United States is sending troops to Saudi Arabia in hopes of deterring further attacks and has taken the extremely rare step of placing sanction on Iran’s central bank (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-sanctions-on-iranian-national-bank-11568990939).  Even though many experts do not expect Saudi Arabia to retaliate militarily due to the weakness of Saudi Arabia’s military compared to Iran’s, the oil market is extremely sensitive to world events and any potential for supply disruptions.  Since the United States has become a net exporter of oil, ranking as the eighth largest oil exporter, U.S. internal oil prices will not see as significant of price variations as when the U.S. still imported oil.  However, the increased demand for U.S. oil may lead to additional oil being exported versus remaining in the U.S. market.  This will result in an increase in prices for oil in the United States.  To combat this, President Trump has authorized the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  This creates interesting movements when applied to the Ricardian trade model.  Because of the reduction in the global availability of crude oil, the PPF for oil production in Saudi Arabia is going to shift away from the curve.  Supply shocks, the aftershocks of quick reductions supply, have caused prices of products that are intertwined with oil to jump.  Additionally, the non-tangible impact of the fear of further oil supply interruptions has led to speculative increases in oil prices.  By allowing the release of the oil in the United States, President Trump is hoping to minimize the impact to the United States supply curve in order to maintain stable markets in the United States.  The Ricardian model helps us understand the multi-market impacts of this sudden supply reduction as well as the impact on the U.S. markets with the target increase of supply in the internal U.S. market.

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