Monday, September 23, 2019

Deal or no deal?


The UK's Brexit fears are continuing to grow with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, as a no-deal Brexit looms. A no-deal Brexit would see the UK leaving the European Union with no trade deals in place, this would, therefore, wipe out any tariffs (or no tariffs) that the UK are currently trading under with over 70 different countries. Brexit is set to take place on the 31st October with Boris Johnson adamant that he wants to leave with no deal in place, meaning that the UK would be free to negotiate and trade with whichever countries they want.
If this event were to take place then we would see many more potential trade deals taking place, such as trade deals that the EU have not exploited or been unable to negotiate deals with countries. However, the priority for the UK would be to replicate the current tariff-free deal that the European Union trades under, this would be crucial for the UK as it would prevent paying taxes on imports and exports for other countries.
If no agreement is to take place, could we see an impact on world prices? Absolutely, as we looked at the terms of trade in class we understand that small countries CAN  NOT change the world price of goods but large countries CAN. The UK may not be large by landmass but it has a huge presence in the world, therefore, the UK would have the potential to alter the world price of goods that they import/export. As they would be creating tariffs on theses goods we could expect to see the price of these goods decrease.
The no-deal Brexit UK would also lose out in certain sectors, for example, automobiles. The huge Nissan plant in the northeast would be the first to suffer, with tougher border restrictions through Europe, higher tariffs and trade costs.  A likely closure of plants in the northeast would cause all sorts of problems, however, we are more likely to see a tariff put in place for automobiles which would decrease the world price. 
In conclusion, if we see a no-deal Brexit, and we see tariffs put in place, then we will see an increase in the terms of trade for the UK, but a decrease in the terms of trade for the trading partners of the UK.

1 comment:

  1. Do you think that if Britain leaves, the EU will put in place tariffs so that it will harm Britain's trade (in spite)? Or that they will have more limited trade with them?
    It is true that the TOT would decrease for both Europe and the UK, but it would also increase the TOT of those doing trades with Britain or Europe (assuming both countries put tariffs in place), because the demand would decrease and there would be a corresponding price decrease. Demonstrating a Pareto Optimal event.

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