There has been a lot of angst in Washington and other countries abroad about the growing trade surplus that Germany is experiencing. President Trump has been eyeing the growing trend with an elevated degree of skepticism, and tensions are rising between the U.S and Germany. Germany argues that the trade surplus is a product of prudent fiscal policy as well as an aging population that is more interested in saving than it is in consuming. We also know that Germany is one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world, which is making it an unstoppable force in producing and exporting goods, and subsequently lending to its ever-improving trade surplus.
The President has been mulling over possible solutions to curtail Germany's trade surplus, not the least of which, inducing trade restrictions. So, how would this resolve the trade imbalance? If anything, this could lead to retaliation from Germany and other countries, similar to events following the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 that arguably exacerbated the Great Depression by fostering ill-bred beliefs of protectionism, the likes of which we are seeing today; The parallels are a bit unnerving. I think it is important to keep in mind, that by trading freely and openly, that people are de facto better off, more goods are made available by countries producing items that they are most efficient in producing, effectively driving down costs and providing the consumers on all sides with more surpluses and more utility.
For further reading on this topic, please click link below:
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-09-13/germanys-trade-surplus-creates-tension-with-the-trump-administration
We still get a lot out of the analysis of these tariffs even if we do NOT consider further retaliation by Germany. Our analysis of free trade considers a country that *unilaterally* opens itself to the rest of the world. We generally expect tariffs to reduce welfare on this basis.
ReplyDeleteBut there is an exception: Tariffs by "big" countries impact the terms of trade. A tariff by the US would probably reduce the world price, which improves the US TOT. This TOT bump would probably NOT offset the efficiency losses, even domestically, so we would still be shooting ourselves in the foot.
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