tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22643968411970568302024-03-06T14:01:38.012-06:00International Trade Class BlogClass Blog for International Economics (ECON 331) at St. Ambrose University. James Banghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07691644145739301784noreply@blogger.comBlogger296125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-7557847014972283902019-12-02T11:28:00.001-06:002019-12-02T11:28:39.674-06:00Labor Standards... or lack of them The worldwide standard for labor is pitiful, as there is such a huge gap between the working conditions in first world countries vs the third world countries which are very much exploited. In this blog, I will be looking at the labor standards of third world countries, the ILO, how a NAFTA type agreement could help and how trade affects these labor standards.<br /> Firstly, when we look at the standard of labor in third world countries, it is abysmal. <a href="http://www.independent.org/publications/article.asp?id=1369" target="_blank">Sweatshops</a> are the best example of this as we see workers in the likes of Bangladesh with an hourly wage of $0.13, which is simply unacceptable as they are overworked and overlooked in poor working conditions. Often these wages are paid by subcontractors of the big apparel brands such as Nike, Primark or any big producer of clothing. Ultimately though, this is a job for these people and this is how they make a living.<br /> <a href="https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/mission-and-objectives/lang--en/index.htm" target="_blank">The International Labour Organization </a>is an agency with a mandate to promote social justice and internationally recognized human and labor standards, essentially to eliminate the likes of sweatshops and poor working conditions. Some things that the ILO specifically looks at are the rights for workers to unionize, job safety, work breaks and forced overtime. When comparing the ILO to NAFTA, NAFTA states that it will not change the said labor laws but it will improve the enforcement of such laws. To me, this is a huge difference, implementing laws properly and efficiently throughout a region of countries will almost definitely improve the standard of labor. So, this leaves me with the thought that, although the ILO is prominent and sets the standard for labor standards, could we see an improvement by seeing regions group together, such as in NAFTA, and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Global_20160720_Blum_FoxWeb.pdf" target="_blank">create free trade throughout third world countries where labor standards and properly enforced</a>, creating better working conditions.<br /> It is hard not to blame trade for the conditions that these people suffer in, however, is this really all down to trade? We can take the idea that trade causes this because of third world countries being exploited for cheap labor and therefore they become the optimal trade partners for larger countries. However, what is the real alternative to these sweatshops, this is not a job of choice its a job through a pure need to live. If we create a free trade union for third world countries, could we see the very minimum wage and labor standards for third world countries increase?<br /><br />Sam Brownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07707011142903495134noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-39458410945879670802019-11-30T23:49:00.002-06:002019-11-30T23:51:01.384-06:00The Effects on America from the China Trade War<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="background: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week I have decided to look at a study that analyzes the effects
on American welfare and prices due in 2018 due to the trade war between the US
and China. <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25672.pdf">I found an empirical study done by Mary Amiti, Stephen J. Redding,and David Weinstein</a> that was published in March of this year. They go into detail
about the effects of these tariffs and what they are seeing happening. Through
a few different regression models, they concluded that import protection leads
to real income losses. They found <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the cumulative
deadweight welfare loss to be $7B, additionally, they found a cost of $12.3B to
domestic consumers and importers in the form of tariff revenue transferred to
the government. They also found that $165B was lost or redirected to avoid tariffs.
</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="background: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As for Prices, they found that the cost of these tariffs have all been
passed on directly to the consumer. They also noted a competition effect, this meaning
that domestic producers raised prices due to foreign competitors raising prices
because of tariffs. After the authors ran a few different regression models and
manipulated the numbers, with a few limitations in mind, they found that US prices
were 1.1% higher in manufacturing due to these tariffs. They also pointed out a
somewhat obvious but important note, that being that the more that is imported
by the producer, the higher they find cost to be per product. The explanation they
talked about was that with these tariffs, they found that a producer that
imports 15% of its variable cost and has to face a 10% tariff, that producer
raises its prices by 2.7%.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="background: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">These effects make sense when thinking about the short term model we
have discussed in class. This is because an import will make something cost
more at home. This resulting in a home cutting back consumption. The gap
between the price paid by foreign and home being the amount collected per unit.
After going through the trade triangle discussed in class with parts A-D we can
see that this gap is made up of the increase is made up of the increase in
producer surplus, government tariff revenue, and net welfare loss. This making
it clear that the foreign country lost in this case. This explaining why the consumer
price is rising. This model does make it clear that this is hurting foreign harder
though. However, this is only looking at one sided tariffs, when looking at a trade
war like one that we are currently in, the results may be different and need to
be weighed before acting. This shown by this study.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Trae Shubathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08636675261712866961noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-89163614937889006692019-11-26T11:56:00.002-06:002019-11-26T11:56:53.013-06:00Why There Will be no more winners in the U.S./China Trade War(Blog X)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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From the U.S. standpoint of this trade-war against China, if
China does not come to terms with negotiating, the US government will raise
tariffs on imports 10% to 25% on China.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This would impact China negatively due to the fact that it would raise
prices for China consumers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many spectators
of this trade-war believe, on each side of the spectrum, that the war isn’t about
just trade but about economic and technology dominance as these two countries
are torn by pride.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From China’s
standpoint they are creating higher tariffs on imports of US companies; Apple
and Dell, which in turn would create higher prices for consumers in the
US.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Basically, this trade-war, is for supremacy
and is hindering each other’s economy while they could be advocating their own
and others countries’ economies by stopping this trade-war through creating a
partnership.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-there-will-be-no-winners-from-the-us-china-trade-war-109822">https://theconversation.com/why-there-will-be-no-winners-from-the-us-china-trade-war-109822</a></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />Tim Lawlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14424183923036659042noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-77717601499484782722019-11-25T15:21:00.000-06:002019-11-25T15:21:00.725-06:00FDI in Germany<br />
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A couple weeks ago,
Britain lost out on its chance to house the <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/brexit-drove-tesla-to-pick-berlin-over-britain-for-new-ev-factory-119111301909_1.html">first
Tesla</a> factory in Europe. Elon Musk decided to choose a location near Berlin
instead, claiming that the uncertainty of Brexit made the investment too risky.
Berlin’s minister of economic affairs claims the factory could create around
six to seven thousand jobs in production with hundreds or thousands in other
areas. This is just one of the many affects upon Germany from receiving this
FDI; however, there is more to these effects than this. Which is why I would
like to take a look at some of these FDI effects so we can understand the
magnitude of what Germany is receiving from this investment, if it is truly a
net gain for Germany, and how they can optimize this investment. <o:p></o:p></div>
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In the short-run,
FDI increases capital causing the MPL to increase causing wages to rise.
However, returns to capital decrease because wages rise causing the MPK to fall
as less people can be employed for one piece of capital. The opposite is true
for the sending country (the US). FDI in the short-run will cause the US’s MPL
in the manufacturing sector to decrease as there will be less capital per
worker (as the capital that would’ve been employed went abroad) and this will cause
wages to fall. However, because wages fall, returns to capital rise. So, in the
short-run, FDI will cause the output of the manufacturing sector and wages to
increase in Germany, while returns to capital will decrease; conversely, in the
US wages and MPL will fall, and returns to capital will increase. To Germany,
this will be a net gain and would be beneficial for them to undertake this
investment.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The aforementioned
are the short-run effects of FDI which we know from class, but are there other affects
of FDI? In an <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65852/1/MPRA_paper_65852.pdf">empirical paper’s</a>
findings which I looked at, it claimed that FDI, output growth, and financial
markets are interconnected; these findings show us that the positive affects of
FDI on economic growth will only be felt after a certain threshold of financial
market development. While there is much potential for Germany to receive from
this FDI, this research tells us that this investment may not be as beneficial
as once thought for Germany as the external factors needed for this kind of growth
may not be set up. Thus, in order for Germany to receive the full benefit of this
FDI, it should focus on the growth of its financial market before it becomes too
late to reap the full benefits.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Mark Filipskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12860493971606588704noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-49114599489623128492019-11-24T19:04:00.001-06:002019-11-24T19:04:23.647-06:00Corn Prices
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="background: white; color: black;">This week, I decided to look at something a little different
than the usual. </span><a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf07f/pdf" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">I found a paper by Bowen Chen and Nelson Villoria</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"> that presents an empirical study on the price of
corn in a variety of net importing countries and relates the price to the
climate instability. The way in which the authors approached finding the effect
that weather and climate has affected these prices is through a regression
model that takes into account a variety of different variables from both the
importing and exporting country. The authors came to a variety of different
conclusions. The first conclusions being corn prices are more stable in
countries where imports make up a larger part of domestic consumption. I found
this to be very interesting because it is basically saying that that when
importing prices are more stable compared to producing yourself. I suppose this
could be because there are more countries to import it from and because there
are different options, it is easier to get ahold of and have a set price. The
second being the authors expect that climate change will cause corn prices to
rise by approximately 10% by midcentury because of the growing instability in climate
in corn producing countries. </span></span></div>
<br />
<span style="background: white; color: black;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>To relate this back to our class, we
can think about this price increase of 10% due to climate change because of corn
supply shocks. When thinking about this in terms of a short run model, you can
see exactly why this price rises by so much. Assuming that the climate causes a
decreased yield, we get a supply shock. When not open to trade, a supply shock
will shift the supply to the left, thus raising the price of the corn. America
is a net exporter of corn, so because we are trading it we know that once
opened to trade, the price will rise because we still have the same amount and
demand will increase. So, with the already increased price from opening to
trade and then a 10% increase due to climate change and disasters, the government
may look for a way to make it more affordable in the United States because corn
is a base product in many foods. One way that the government could ensure that
this food is still able to be produced and at a consistent price is through a
quota on the amount exported. This quota would limit the amount exported
leading to a more stable price in the US because there would be more to go
around and not as much of a demand. As for the global market, this quota may
drive the price of international corn up further though. This indeed may hurt
the overall welfare of the world; however, it would benefit the US welfare. </span><br />
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Trae Shubathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08636675261712866961noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-67436191681558330842019-11-18T16:43:00.001-06:002019-11-18T16:44:13.779-06:00The Effects of a Trade War<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
In class we have
been talking a lot about tariffs and the effects of them: the costs, the
benefits, and the reasoning behind implementing them. To begin I’d like to assess
the gains from trade, then assess why someone would impose a tariff and the consequences
of said tariff, to finally analyze if the effects of a trade war are beneficial.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
<a href="http://digamoo.free.fr/tradewarcepr19.pdf#page=43">Ralph Ossa</a> states
that the gains from trade account for around one-quarter of worldwide real
income; the gains from trade can be thought of as the division of labor, which
allows for specialization and thus efficiency. Trade is exactly this—it
specializes the output of countries pendent on their endowments, technologies,
and capital, to increase the welfare of and production of a country. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Why would someone
put a tariff in place? For many reasons: it can be political, it can be a form
of revenue for a country’s government, it can be to incentivize production of
goods, to incentivize the consumption of domestic goods, etc. In a study by <a href="http://digamoo.free.fr/tradewarcepr19.pdf#page=43">Ralph Ossa</a>, he
found that tariffs put into place for 30% approximately reduced the gains from
trade by one-eighth. He goes on to say that this would affect the real income
of China and the US by minimal amounts. However, if the US started a trade war
with the EU (e.g., on automotives), they would triple their losses to about
-1.2%. We know, that when a large country places a tariff on goods, it can have
a net gain if the revenue and TOT is greater than the deadweight losses.
However, with the information posed by Ossa, we can see that getting into a
trade war is not good for the country overall. He subsequently adds that these
calculations were done in a long-term model and he thinks that in the
short-term a trade war would be much more damaging than the evidenced
calculations here—all-the-more justifying the costs of a trade war. <o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Mark Filipskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12860493971606588704noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-15834291694504879312019-11-18T12:17:00.002-06:002019-11-18T12:17:42.481-06:00The Importance of Tech in the U.S.-Brazil Relationship
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
High technology has helped increase global economic growth, development,
and social interaction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This article
talks about the future of the U.S. and Brazils economic integration going forward.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Brazil is committed to reducing communication technology tariffs,
which would help the U.S. increase business access to the Brazilian market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This sequence would help digital technologies
more open to Brazilians in all their industries, overall improving their
Welfare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the U.S. having increased
business access in the Brazilian market would help economic growth in America. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This article also talks of the increase of
cybersecurity with digital technologies in Brazil, with the U.S. offering the
best practices to help Brazil.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With this
trade agreement it will help enable economic growth, innovation, and
competitiveness all to due high technological industries.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><br />
<a href="https://www.itic.org/news-events/techwonk-blog/the-importance-of-tech-in-the-usbrazil-relationship">https://www.itic.org/news-events/techwonk-blog/the-importance-of-tech-in-the-usbrazil-relationship</a>Tim Lawlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14424183923036659042noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-21175560053815421322019-11-11T16:04:00.006-06:002019-11-11T16:04:44.465-06:00Japan's Consumption Tax Hike<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: white;"> Japan has recently raised its <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49849484">consumption tax from 8% to 10%</a></span>. This hike in
sales tax comes after it had been pushed back from <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-36423218">2015 to 2017</a></span>, then ultimately ended up taking
place on October 1, 2019. The tax increase was originally pushed back due to uncertainty
in domestic and global economic conditions. It is predicted that this tax increase
will weigh heavily on the outlook Japan’s well performing economy. In the past,
sales tax increases have caused detriment to consumption in the economy, but
this time around, it is predicted to not be as bad. This may be due to the fact
that the Japanese will be eligible for a 5% rebate when using electronic
payment methods at some smaller retailers to mitigate the tax increase.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"> We’ve shown in
class that this consumption tax is less favorable to consumers. As their budget
line is decreased. Say Japan consumes apples and bananas (Bananas on the
vertical axis and Apples on the horizontal axis). Before the sales tax increase,
consumers budget line had a slope of P<sub>a</sub><sup>w</sup>/(1+.08)P<sub>b</sub><sup>w</sup>.
So, the Japanese consumers have a less than favorable budget line than if they
were consuming at world prices. After the increase, the slope of their budget
line is dropped to P<sub>a</sub><sup>w</sup>/(1+.10)P<sub>b</sub><sup>w</sup>. You
could argue that the consumers are worse off with this consumption tax, because
they are no longer able to afford to consume at the world prices with their
income. This rise in sales tax, has caused <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/08/business/economy-business/household-spending-rose-record-year-year-pace-japans-october-tax-hike/">Japan’s household consumption</a></span> to go down across
the board. The big question is, is that helping or hurting the economy? While
the government may be collecting more in tax revenue if consumption were to
stay the same, is the consumption tax hike worth it if consumption drops as a
result of it?</span></div>
Matt Tholehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09259874330640559734noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-43317706634880360582019-11-11T10:51:00.001-06:002019-11-11T10:51:48.386-06:00Effect of Quotas and Tariffs on U.S. Steel Imports and ExportsQuotas, which are defined as a limited quantity of a particular product that can be produced, imported, or exported, are generally used to provide support for domestic producers. This can be seen in the U.S. steel industry in which there are not only quotas but also tariffs. Quotas set by President Trump are supposed to discourage imports and encourage exports and domestic consumption. They are, however, doing the opposite. According to the <a href="https://www.joc.com/breakbulk/us-steel-imports-increasing-despite-tariffs-quotas_20191028.html">article</a>, the U.S has imported 15.9 million tons of steel from January through August, a 4% increase from the full year of 2018. With these protectionist measures in place, some companies are moving out of countries that are subject to tariffs, i.e. China, to countries that aren't, i.e. Vietnam or Malaysia. According to John Anton, an associate director with IHS Markit, China and India are creating a global surplus of steel and the oversupply won't be corrected unless these two countries cut their output. This is beneficial to steel buyers but bad for steelmakers. <div>
Meanwhile, the domestic market for US-made steel isn't performing well. After an original increase in price from $600-$900 per ton of hot rolled steel, prices have fallen to less than $500 a ton. Immediately after the tariffs by Trump were enacted, U.S. producers began creating new capacity. This caused the prices to increase to levels that weren't sustainable over a long period of time. This caused imports to increase. Demand has faltered in 2019 and domestic steel price is now lower than import prices for many of the products it creates. </div>
<div>
Scrap metal is also hitting a roadblock. Used as a key raw material for U.S. mini-mills, scrap metal demand has decreased exceptionally. Rising scrap prices would justify price increases for finished products, but this just isn't happening. These tariffs and quotas are causing U.S. companies to lose business. Jimmy Lyons, CEO of the Alabama State Port Authority, says that "there's no question we've lost business and the state of Alabama has lost export markets due to U.S. steel tariffs. Some of this loss was initially attributed to the tariffs against Mexico and Canada, but even with those duties now lifted, the business doesn't seem to have come back". </div>
Thomas Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10556317504012095642noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-73999618244397982652019-11-03T20:18:00.000-06:002019-11-10T23:32:48.254-06:00Immigration vs Robot impact In this blog post, I am going to look at and compare the theory of immigration in comparison to 'robots' or essentially new technology. Although data and theory on new technology is still a rather fresh concept, I am going to make my views and assumptions based off of immigration theory, however, the assumption that technology is fixed and identical will be adjusted for.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>With immigration, we assume that labor and capital are mobile across countries and that all factors are mobile across sectors. As well as this, there is one country that is abundant in labor and one that is abundant in capital, with the capital abundant country having lower wages than the labor abundant. The final assumption is that there is no trade-in good and services, to prevent wages equalizing without factor movements.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span><a href="https://www.usi.edu/business/cashel/241/text%20files/intlmigration.pdf" target="_blank">With immigration enhancing the spectrum of the population,</a> the production of the factors across the economy increase as there are a larger workforce and a larger range of low to high skilled workers. This impacts the economy in the short and long run. The theory would essentially be supply and demand with low skilled labor, as all sectors and countries are mobile, workers moving from one country to another to work has a simple supply and demand effect. In the short run, we see a decrease in low skilled labor wages as the supply increases and in the long run, we see don't see a great effect on wage and it remains relatively similar.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Now, as we looked at in the test, how can this compare to increases in technology and the replacement of human labor to robots. We have to rule out the Heckscher-Ohlin model for this as that assumes all technology is the same between the countries. So, if we see a development in technology whereby human labor is replaced, the negative effects of immigration would be multiplied. The influx of robots into our economy would cause a significant change to the employment and wages of low skilled workers.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>T<a href="file:///C:/Users/sam/Downloads/ProductionJobsInTheWorldOfRobots_preview.pdf" target="_blank">he marginal productivity of a robot has to be greater than that of the low skilled worker, an automatic, systematic, repetitive type of production that is replaceable.</a> This means that one robot is not going to just replace workers at a one to one ratio, it would more likely be a one to three or so ratio, whereby we will see wages and employment decline even more rapid than we would see if low skilled migration increased significantly. So this leaves the question of, is it worth producing technology to replace low skilled labor given the negative effects it will have on the economy?<br />
<br />Sam Brownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07707011142903495134noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-25907257913184457402019-11-03T13:28:00.001-06:002019-11-03T13:28:11.180-06:00Emigration Effect on WageWe have recently looked at the
impact that immigration has on the home countries wage as well as employment. I
have decided to look at the other side of things and see what the effect of emigration
on the home country is. <a href="http://econweb.umd.edu/~lafortune/puc-readings/Mishra_2007.pdf">I found
an empirical study done by P. Misrha that discusses this in great detail as it
analyzes the effects on the wage in Mexico due to emigration to the United
States.</a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They concluded that there is
a strong positive correlation between emigration and wage in Mexico. This is
further dug into and examined by schooling group. The conclusion of this was that
a 10% decrease in the supply of labor due to emigration lead to a 4% increase
in the wage for that specific schooling group. Emigration that occurred between
1970 and 2000 increased the average wage in Mexico by 8%. With the largest impact
being on the high school graduates’ group, whose wage increases by 15% after controlling
for other variables. It then goes into talk about the census in Mexico from
1990 to 2000. This census indicated that where the impact on citizens with some
college education was double that of people with only a high school education. Misrha
then suggests the increased emigration is leading to a larger and larger wage
gap in developing countries. This is a rather interesting suggestion and something
that could be very bad for Mexico in the short run. We can see that obviously emigration
is helping those of higher education much more than those of the lower class. So,
indeed the wage gap is widening as emigration is increasing. <br />
As we have
talked about in class, the effects of immigration to the United States are positive
in the long run especially for the United States. When thinking about purely
the benefits on wage in Mexico, they are benefiting from emigration as well.
So, you would think that there is no downfall. However, as they are emigrating
the wage gap is widening in Mexico. This increasing wage gap is then leading to
decreased overall welfare for those in the lower classes. The faster growing
wage for those with education makes sense as those with higher education in
developing country are harder to find so the amount that they make will grow to
attract more talent. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When thinking about
this in terms of the Ricardian Model where labor is immobile we can see that
because the citizens of Mexico are unable to switch industries in the short run,
the overall welfare of the lower class will drop. <br />
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Trae Shubathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08636675261712866961noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-63624439197382254982019-10-28T17:51:00.001-05:002019-10-28T17:51:51.687-05:00Offshoring Work is Taking a Toll on the U.S. Economy<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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Offshoring is the relocation of a business process from one
country to another, typically a business that deals with operational and supporting
processes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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This article focuses on offshoring of the U.S. economy in
2014. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The practice of moving production to
foreign areas while selling goods to the U.S. market is a pervasive feature of
the economy today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The manufacturing
industry when offshored for example, imports for capital-intensive industries
such as machinery made U.S. companies who were labor-intensive manufacturing
industries less likely to engage in production relocation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This indicated that the global businesses see
the U.S. market more as a place for sales rather than a place to invest in
production.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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A federal reserve bank of New York stated the more a U.S. industry
is exposed to offshoring pressures, the more wages would be decreased within
each share made.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How to fix this was to
increase economic competition by moving production to offshore locales, then
selling the goods back to the U.S. market.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2014/07/30/94864/offshoring-work-is-taking-a-toll-on-the-u-s-economy/"><span style="color: blue;">https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2014/07/30/94864/offshoring-work-is-taking-a-toll-on-the-u-s-economy/</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />Tim Lawlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14424183923036659042noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-71196961858142428092019-10-28T16:51:00.001-05:002019-10-28T16:54:39.601-05:00The Harms of Repeating History <br />
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The US has always had an internal struggle with immigration
and as we spoke about in class, especially in the 1920’s; the quotas imposed on
immigration in the 1920’s, simply for the reason of ethnic purity, ended up
being very harmful to our economy. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Today we find ourselves in a similar situation in which our
current president has made restrictions on immigration. These restrictions harm
us is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/business/immigration-cuts-economy.html">multiple
ways</a>: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first being that immigration increases the population,
which increases the productivity of all factors, subsequently raising the
rental rate and benefits the home country as high- and low-skilled workers’
wages decrease slightly in the short-run. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The second is that with these immigration barriers and an
unsteady flow of immigrants, economic growth will be slower. As more and more
Baby Boomers exit the workforce and Americans have slower birthrates, we need
people to enter the workforce; that is where immigration comes in.<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/08/immigration-projected-to-drive-growth-in-u-s-working-age-population-through-at-least-2035/">
Pew Research</a> states that within the next 15 years or so, the number of
working age adults will be up 13.5 million from 11.1m to 24.6m. If we did not
see this influx of immigrants, we would see a contraction of the bucket diagram
where the wage would rise due to employers’ demand of workers increasing; the
rental on capital/land would decrease and so would the marginal productivity of
these factors. This wage hike is only in the short-run, however in the
long-run, you can see how devastating this effect would be; if immigration is
restricted, this is exactly what will happen: the bucket diagram will contract,
and we will feel these effects.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The third is how these restrictions deter some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/business/immigration-cuts-economy.html">brilliant
minds</a>, as well as needed workers. With immigration having the greatest
effect on low-skilled and high-skilled labor, we find that these restrictions
end up deterring those with college level or above education, and lower than
high school education. This practically means that we could be deterring some
of the most brilliant doctors (or whomever) and that could have major affects
on our labor-force regarding R&D and even discourage future generations of
brilliant minds from entering those fields. However, as we looked at iso-cost
lines in class we can see that this might not necessarily be a bad thing, as
the US could focus on producing components and offshoring or outsourcing
R&D; although with this the US might be paying a little extra because they
wouldn’t be benefiting from the wage decrease and wouldn’t get the claim on
any patents for work that they outsourced.<o:p></o:p></div>
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If the US continues to produce immigration restrictions,
they might want to look at the disadvantages, before they repeat history.
Personally, I don’t think that they should put up more trade restrictions or
even maintain those that they have, because I think it harms the economy in
three ways: it declines the re-population rate, slows the economic growth of the
economy, and deters brilliant minds, as well as, discourages future generations—all
while potentially losing out financially.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Mark Filipskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12860493971606588704noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-79628114431190765732019-10-21T13:15:00.002-05:002019-10-21T13:15:39.531-05:00Potential Benefits of Immigration in UKSince the beginning of the millennium, the UK has experienced a steady flow of net migrants into their economy. Independent of political views, there is evidence of some positive impacts of these new inhabitants in the UK economy. According to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47428515">this article</a>, nearly 50% of people asked believe that immigration has had a positive impact on the UK. Although it may not seem like much, that is up nearly 30% from 2011. Of those that are migrating into the UK, roughly 43% of them have university degrees compared to only 21% of British adult population. Professor Rob Ford, who researches immigration trends at the University of Manchester, states several reasons as to why he believes people are favoring immigration: the Brexit vote itself may have led to some people believing that the immigration issue has been dealt with and in the political environment, those who oppose U.S. President Donald Trump.<br />
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Now, since I am looking at the long-run model, all factors are mobile between industries, that is, labor and capital. This means that labor will go to labor-intensive industries while capital goes to capital-intensive industries. This ensures that neither industry gets an upper hand on the other because in the long-run model, the capital to labor ratio is equal. The labor skill of those who migrate into a country have the potential to drive down wages. Low-labor migrants can cause a flood of labor which causes wages to go down. However, for the UK, 43% of those migrating in have a university degree. This will cause an increase in competition and therefore neutralize any negative effect on wage. The increased labor pushes a countries PPF out and allows for more demand. In this <a href="https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/lump-labour-fallacy.png">graph</a>, it is shown that demand is increased which will not have a negative impact on wage. Immigration also has a positive impact on returns to land and capital depending on where it goes to. With more workers, owners of land and capital benefit because of the marginal production these workers add.<br />
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In conclusion, independent of politics, immigration in the long run can be very beneficial for a nation. Although at first it may lower wages, the net gain is greater than any loss that occurs. It raises a countries PPF and increases the returns to land and capital.Thomas Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10556317504012095642noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-44957179862980772422019-10-18T12:14:00.000-05:002019-10-18T12:14:06.910-05:00Immigration Disputes in Canada<br />
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Canada’s newest political party, the People’s Party of Canada
(PPC), has begun a Trump-like immigration reform amid the upcoming Canadian
election. The PPC leader, Maxime Bernier, is spearheading these efforts, <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><a href="https://theconversation.com/maxime-bernier-either-doesnt-know-or-doesnt-care-that-immigrants-have-a-positive-impact-on-the-economy-125035">claiming that immigration has negative impacts on the economy and on its citizens</a></span>. This is an interesting
take on immigration given that a recent poll suggested that a majority of Canadians
actually supported immigration. Bernier backs his proposed policy suggesting
that immigrants are putting financial burdens on non-immigrant Canadians. It
was shown, however, in the latest 2016 census, that there was no evidence of
immigrants receiving more benefits, paying less taxes, or taking jobs from
non-immigrants. Immigrants, with a higher level of education than other Canadians,
in most cases, are earning less than their non-immigrant counterparts. This is
a sad truth that has appeared in Canada’s labor market often.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>With this
background, let’s look at how immigration can help the economy in the long-run
model. In the long-run, labor and capital are mobile across sectors. Therefore,
with an increase in immigration, the labor with go to work in the labor-intensive
industry. Since capital is also mobile, some capital will be shifted from the capital-intensive
industry to the labor-intensive industry to keep the capital-labor ratio
constant, as it is in the long-run. In Canada, the immigrants are more likely
to move to spots where labor is most needed, since the industries are often
regionally concentrated. With this move it is found that, in Canada, immigrants
are doing jobs that are complement to, rather than substitute to, those of non-immigrants.
This fact is another suggesting factor that the <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><a href="https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/pageone-economics/uploads/newsletter/2014/PageOne0514_Economics_of_Immigration.pdf">immigration can increase wages</a></span> for
non-immigrant workers. A graph, presented <a href="https://theconversation.com/maxime-bernier-either-doesnt-know-or-doesnt-care-that-immigrants-have-a-positive-impact-on-the-economy-125035">in the article</a>, even shows evidence that the mobility of immigrants per capita to areas in Canada over the last 10 years has a direct relationship with higher wages for non-immigrant Canadians. Even if we look at this in the short run, though wages
may decrease at first due to an increased labor-capital ratio, returns for the
owners of capital will be greater because the marginal product of capital is
higher.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>In conclusion,
it is important for politicians to understand the economic benefits of
immigration. Granted, there can be situations in which immigration can hurt our
wages when immigrants and non-immigrants are competing for substitute jobs. U.S.
President Donald Trump praises the approach being taken by the PPC, as they
look to take immigrants on economic class rather than family class. This is already
being done in Canada with over half of immigrants coming from higher economic
class, which has shown positive economic effects as of now. It is evident that
the PPC’s policy reform is not one of economic backing and is a political
scheme that will most likely not play out well for Maxime Bernier and his
supporters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Matt Tholehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09259874330640559734noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-18170588129064384172019-10-14T11:24:00.005-05:002019-10-14T11:24:47.116-05:00The HO theorem post WW2The Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) theorem states that a country that is capital abundant will export a capital intensive good and a country that is labor abundant will export a labor-intensive good. This allows for countries to export what they are good at producing and what they are relatively better at producing than other countries.<br />
<br />
In problem set one we saw an example of this with Sweden and Norway, one being capital abundant producing automobiles and one being labor abundant and using its resources effectively producing fish. In this blog, I want to take a closer look at an example like this and demonstrate how the H-O model translates from theory to practicality.<br />
<br />
As the H-O model assumes that both countries have the same technological production, a good time to look at this theory would be post World War Two, when world technologies were increasing allowing for more <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/trade-and-globalization#the-two-waves-of-globalization" target="_blank">capital-output and cheaper production.</a><br /><br />
An example of a capital abundant country and therefore a country who exported capital intensive goods after World War Two would be Japan. They used the technology and capital abundance left from the World Wars to produce <a href="http://www.iun.edu/~hisdcl/h207_2002/jecontakeoff.htm" target="_blank">capital intensive good - automobiles.</a> This is interesting as pre-WW2 Japan was a labor-intensive country.<br />
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For labor abundant countries, we started to see countries like Thailand and Vietnam producing clothing and more labor-intensive goods. This is where we see most of our clothing from still today, so Vietnam and Thailand moved towards being labor abundant and producing labor-intensive goods such as clothing.Sam Brownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07707011142903495134noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-64505073586272078452019-10-13T14:08:00.001-05:002019-10-17T20:34:22.809-05:00Immigrations Impact on Natives<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Did you know many studies
have found that immigration grows the economy and has few if any negative
effects in the long run? It is true, one of these studies looked at the Mariel
Boatlift in Miami and concluded similar results. <a href="https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2016/1/27/the-effects-of-immigration-on-the-united-states-economy">The University of Pennsylvaniahas a very interesting article</a> about this that debunks many of the politician’s
arguments against immigration. Research has indicated that immigration increases
the supply of labor, this leads to firms increasing investments, this ensuring
that wages remain constant in the long run. If you look at the Heckscher-olin model for a long run outlook of wage you will see these results. This is because everything is mobile. As more workers are put to work in each industry, capital will be readjusted among the industries to keep the labor-capital ratio the same. Because these ratios are unchanged, the marginal products of labor and capital are unchanged as well. Therefore rental and wage do not change in the long run. In the short run, due to the influx
of workers it has been shown that this increase leads to a short term drop in
the wage and a higher unemployment rate. This is seen in most economic models discussed
in class due to the simple fact that more labor means higher competition for a
job and wages then can be dropped until equilibrium is hit. If you look at the specific factors model, with the influx of immigrants, the PPF will shift outward. However, the wage will drop because both industries have more workers but they also have fixed amounts of capital and land, therefore the wage will decline because of diminishing marginal product of labor. This wage drop is especially prevalent
in jobs that are already being worked by immigrants as well as low skilled jobs.
This is because these new immigrants tend not to take native workers jobs for a
few reasons including language barrier and skill required. Instead these
immigrants tend to take jobs of the very low skilled as well as jobs worked by
other immigrants. The article states that immigration tends to impact those who
simply have a high school degree or less as well as those with masters and PHD’s
due to those being the groups that tend to immigrate. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> One interesting fact that the article pointed out was the
benefit that immigrants bring to companies especially in top management and
research related positions. Immigrants produce twice as many patents compared
to native workers. Research suggest that a higher level of skilled and
innovative workers leads to a faster growing GDP. “It has been found that </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">more
than ¾ of U.S. GPD growth over the last 150 years can be explained by
improvements in education and research-driven innovation.” </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
is because as new technology and objects are developed it requires more labor
to produce thus increasing the labor force. These items are also demanded throughout
the world leading to increased exports to other countries and higher overall
welfare. It can be concluded that these immigrants in total are not hurting our
work force or economy rather they are boosting it especially when looking at
the long-term effects of immigration. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span><br />
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<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Trae Shubathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08636675261712866961noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-71680458566254008612019-10-07T16:27:00.000-05:002019-10-07T16:29:35.274-05:00Trade gap widens more than expected to $54.9 billion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;">The
U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected due to high level of imports of
consumer goods and tariffs against China and the European Union.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consumer goods imports hit 57.2 billion dollars,
which was a cause of increase on demand that helped keep the U.S. economy
afloat from a possible slowdown.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As the
overall deficit rose, the gap with China declined 3.1% for that month.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The list goes on of different countries being
either in a loss or creating wins with U.S. trade gap. The U.S. has been doing
very well with buying and selling to other countries, for example we’re threatening
to impose 25% tariffs on European Union agricultural goods such as a popular Cheese
company.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: black; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/us-trade-deficit---august-2019.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/us-trade-deficit---august-2019.html</a></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Tim Lawlerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14424183923036659042noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-772967734547554252019-10-05T14:39:00.002-05:002019-10-11T15:56:54.511-05:00<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FFF9EE;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk21625844"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">The minimum wage in
Britain has only risen a quarter, since 2015 (to <span style="background: white;">£</span>8.21) for those who are older than 25 and is about to rise
again. On </span></a><a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/10/01/britain-may-soon-have-one-of-the-highest-minimum-wages-in-the-world"><span style="color: #888888; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">September 30<sup>th</sup></span></a><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">, Sajid Javid, the Chancellor, promised to raise the minimum
wage by 2024 to two-thirds median earnings, which would equate to around <span style="background: white;">£</span>9 today. However, in five years’ time, Javid
thinks that it’ll work out to around £10.50 and he wishes to extend the range
to those over 21.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">I think
this could have detrimental effects to the British economy for the following
reasons: Higher-paying hourly-waged jobs will decrease in value relative to the
increase in minimum wage and thus give employees incentives to look for other
jobs or not work as hard in their own—as proposed in the </span><a href="https://cnx.org/contents/vEmOH-_p@6.4:bzs2mFWT@5/21-3-What-Causes-Changes-in-Unemployment-over-the-Short-Run"><span style="background: white; color: #888888; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">Efficiency Wage Theory</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">. This would cause the employers to pay more
for their employees to have them stay. This rise in relative wage would
increase the products prices, affecting domestic and export sectors. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">It will
also cost producers and consumers who export or supply domestically, because
the price of the products in the sectors which saw a raise in wage will
increase, raising the revenue earned, thus the rent on capital. To those who
are selling capital (either repossessing or leasing) this is good. However, to
those who are purchasing it or using it to produce goods, this is detrimental
because they will have to pay more. To those who export goods, they will see a
rise in their prices and will pass this along to other countries; Britain,
being the 5<sup>th</sup> largest economy in the world, will certainly have an impact on world prices and the increase in price for those exported goods would increase
Britain’s TOT, worsening the TOT of countries importing these goods.
Since the world relative price would increase, there would be a corresponding
decrease in demand. This then, would reduce consumer welfare in both Britain and
countries importing these goods because they would have less consumption and
thus less utility.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif;">I
believe that though there might be some winners in this scenario, the majority
will be losers: the world economy will suffer from the rise in wages due to a
higher rental rate of capital and cost of labor. These costs will be passed on
to all consumers, foreign or domestic, causing the TOT of all importing
countries to decrease along with their welfare, for lack of consumption thereof.</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Mark Filipskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12860493971606588704noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-79898329980537026182019-10-01T10:07:00.002-05:002019-10-01T10:07:42.729-05:00Trade Adjustment Assistance - Professor Post!A recent episode of <a href="https://www.econtalk.org/dani-rodrik-on-neoliberalism/" target="_blank">Russ Roberts' Econtalk podcast</a> featured economist and author of several popular books on globalization including "<a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/straight-talk-trade" target="_blank">Straight Talk on Trade</a>" (2017) and "<a href="https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/publications/globalization-paradox-democracy-and-future-world-economy" target="_blank">The Globalization Paradox</a>" (2011) Dani Rodrik discussing economic neoliberalism (which Rodrik dubs "market fundamentalism"), trade, welfare, jobs, and dignity. A small slice of the discussion included the topic of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_Adjustment_Assistance" target="_blank">Trade Adjustment Assistance </a>(TAA), which Roberts and Rodrik largely agree has failed to varying degrees in the US. Here, I want to propose a couple of thoughts for why TAA hasn't succeeded as much as it might have in the US.<br />
One reason that Rodrik points out is that, in contrast to many countries in Europe, TAA in the US is not "baked in with" the overall social safety net. While this may be true, it begs the question about why this is the case. One reason is that globalization has been a continuing long run phenomenon. While the market value (income) for sector-specific factors like specific capital or specific skills may degrade initially, these eventually become mobile, and to a large extent, workers have been fairly adept at acquiring skills in sectors that have expanded. What it doesn't account for is the long, grinding degradation of wages that the Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts.<br />
Hence, the main reason that TAA fails in the US and succeeds in other countries is because TAA in the US requires petitioners to demonstrate how <i>trade</i> has caused their adjustment problem. Workers affected by a long-run deterioration of wages due to trade or automation may not be able to demonstrate how or why they "deserve" TAA, narrowly defined. A "no-fault" safety net might be a better way to mitigate losses to trade and/or automation without killing the golden goose.James Banghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07691644145739301784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-14784221855324794872019-09-30T10:43:00.000-05:002019-09-30T10:43:18.879-05:00Impacts of International TradeInternational trade has the potential to greatly improve a countries welfare. Whether its through imports or exports, when a country trades they are statistically better off than those who do not. Trade promotes economic growth, efficiency, technological progress, and what ultimately matters the most, consumer welfare. According to the <a href="https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2015/5/consumer-benefits-from-international-trade">US Congress Joint Economic Committee</a>, international trade has raised the average American's annual household by $10,000 or more. Trade also creates competition among businesses that create the same product that is being imported. This results in a reduction in price which allows consumers to buy more of the product. Trade not only benefits consumers but producers as well. According to the US Chamber of Commerce, 41 million jobs depend on international trade.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, the grass isn't always greener because trade can also lower the real wage of a countries workers. By importing a cheap product, the real wage of workers domestically producing that product can decrease. This will only happen if the wage effect is greater than the consumption effect. In order for a household to have a net welfare loss, the decrease in wage must outweigh the increase of consumption. According to the specific factors model however, labor is able to move among industries. This means that those workers can find other work in industries that don't import a specific product.Thomas Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10556317504012095642noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-20006282031486617442019-09-27T10:27:00.002-05:002019-09-27T10:27:31.121-05:00International Trade and its Effect on Household Welfare<br />
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International trade reduces real
wages in certain sectors, when that sector is a competitor to the imported
products in a certain country. This reduction in real wages results in a
reduction in income, therefore a reduction in consumption. However, in the presence
of trade, imported products in that sector may be cheaper for households to
consume, thus mitigating the loss of income felt by workers in that sector. The
paper I have chosen to discuss is a study of how <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><a href="https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/378/pdfs/how-does-international-trade-affect-household-welfare.pdf">households can benefit from international trade</a></span> as
it lowers the prices of consumer goods, even in light of the unfortunate loss
of income for some.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
The author talks of many findings
about how households are affected as consumers and producers in terms of
international trade. Depending on the industry in which the households are “producers”
they could experience many welfare gains from international trade. However, if
the household is a worker in the local sector for the imported good, then their
welfare effects will be determined by the reduction in price of imported good
as it relates to the reduction in income. The article estimates that, in most
cases, the consumption effect is larger than the wage effect. Meaning, if the
reduction in consumption price is greater than the reduction in income, the household
should experience net welfare gains. The author also found that geography can
play a role in determining the consumption effect. Rural households may not
experience as much of a reduction in price as the urban households do, since
they are further from the trading centers.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
To fully understand the income and
consumption effects on the welfare gains and losses, we must first decide if
labor is able to move among industries. In the case where labor is able to
freely move between sectors, it is likely that international trade will always
provide welfare gains for both countries, as the wage effect on these laborers
should only be temporary as they move to a different sector (maybe the
exporting sector or sector that doesn’t rival the imported goods). However, if
labor is not easily moved between sectors, it is likely these workers will have
to bank on the consumption effect being much greater than their loss of wages
to experience welfare gains from the international trade. It is important for
governments to keep an eye on this, as tariffs could cause the consumption
effect felt by consumers to drop (meaning higher prices), but a countering positive
wage effect as consumers move to the more local good. However, if the wage
effect by the local consumption of the good is not enough to counter the reduction
in the consumption price rising of the imported good, welfare could decrease.
Governments must not look to increase their own terms of trade at the expense of
their households’ welfare.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />Matt Tholehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09259874330640559734noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-38287122507777022242019-09-23T12:00:00.003-05:002019-09-26T23:32:35.330-05:00Deal or no deal?<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>The UK's Brexit fears are continuing to grow with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, as a no-deal Brexit looms. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48511379" target="_blank">A no-deal Brexit</a> would see the UK leaving the European Union with no trade deals in place, this would, therefore, wipe out any tariffs (or no tariffs) that the UK are currently trading under with over 70 different countries. Brexit is set to take place on the 31st October with Boris Johnson adamant that he wants to leave with no deal in place, meaning that the UK would be free to negotiate and trade with whichever countries they want.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>If this event were to take place then we would see many more potential trade deals taking place, such as trade deals that the EU have not exploited or been unable to negotiate deals with countries. However, the priority for the UK would be to replicate the current tariff-free deal that the European Union trades under, this would be crucial for the UK as it would prevent paying taxes on imports and exports for other countries.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>If no agreement is to take place, could we see an impact on world prices? Absolutely, as we looked at the terms of trade in class we understand that small countries CAN NOT change the world price of goods but large countries CAN. The UK may not be large by landmass but it has a huge presence in the world, therefore, the UK would have the potential to alter the world price of goods that they import/export. As they would be creating tariffs on theses goods we could expect to see the price of these goods decrease.<br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>The no-deal Brexit UK would also lose out in certain sectors, for example, automobiles. The huge Nissan plant in the northeast would be the first to suffer, with tougher border restrictions through Europe, higher tariffs and trade costs. <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nissan-brexit-second-referendum-no-deal-boris-johnson-eu-sunderland-a9020071.html" target="_blank">A likely closure of plants in the northeast</a> would cause all sorts of problems, however, we are more likely to see a tariff put in place for automobiles which would decrease the world price. <br />
<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>In conclusion, if we see a no-deal Brexit, and we see tariffs put in place, then we will see an increase in the terms of trade for the UK, but a decrease in the terms of trade for the trading partners of the UK.Sam Brownhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07707011142903495134noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-20887024390155678652019-09-22T14:45:00.002-05:002019-09-25T11:53:45.626-05:00The Effects of Technology in Developing Contries<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This week I decided to look
at <a href="https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/161394982.pdf">a paper written in the
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies</a>. This paper was written by
Yuqing Xing and Bo Zhang and it discusses the issue of technological advances
in developing countries and the effects on developed countries with use of the Ricardian
Model. I will summarize and explain the results of their research in the remaining
of this <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>blog.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To determine the effects of technological bias
growth in a developing country, the authors assume there are two countries.
Country One is developed and specialized in good one(comparative advantage). Country
Two is developing and specialized in good two(comparative advantage).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At this point, if these two countries trade,
they will both gain from trade and overall welfare will rise in both countries.
We have seen this in class with how the indifference curve shifts out. Next,
the Authors assumed that Country two has a technological advancement in good
one that now allows them to produce both goods. At this point, the welfare of Country
One is a decreasing function of the production of good one in Country Two. The
authors then made it clear that even before Country Two completely catches up
to the production of Country One in good one, the welfare of Country one is falling.
The Authors next talk about how the size of the countries can play a part in
the effect on welfare in this situation. If Country One is a smaller country
and Country Two is large, Country Two can have a less significant advancement
and still have a large effect on Country One compared to if Country Two was
small and Country One was large. This is because with a larger population it is
easier to produce more than if you have a smaller population. </span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">To better illustrate their
finding, I will briefly explain why this happens in terms of what we have
discussed in class. As one country has technological advances, the PPF shifts
out. With this shift they can produce more. When they can produce more, it puts
more of the product on the market. If this happens, they can produce enough of
the original good to use themselves as well as export while at the same time
producing the good they were importing. This would lead to a trade imbalance
with the country they are exporting to and lead to a drop-in welfare of that
country because the amount exported drops thus leading to a decline in the
production, this leading to the production curve becoming closer to the original
PPF without trade and the indifference curve shifting to the left.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Overall, this was a very
informative paper that shines light upon the issues and threats that a technological
advance in developing countries could cause. This could be very useful with analyzing
somewhere like India and its effect on the American welfare. An area I believe
the paper could have done a bit better in was presenting data. The article
brought forth a lot of equations to explain the results, but it didn’t exactly
show any physical number or data. I also wish the paper had shown graphs for to
better illustrate the results. </span></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div align="center" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">References</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin-left: .5in; text-indent: -.5in;">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Xing, Y., & Zhang, B. (2018). </span><i style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Population, Technological Progress and the Welfare of the
North-South Trade: A Revisit of the Classic Ricardian Model</span></i><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; float: none; orphans: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"> (No. 18-10). National Graduate Institute for
Policy Studies.</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>Trae Shubathttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08636675261712866961noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2264396841197056830.post-33664509505638651922019-09-16T16:31:00.001-05:002019-09-21T14:52:43.429-05:00<blockquote style="font-family: UICTFontTextStyleBody; font-size: 17px;" type="cite">
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<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #201f1e; font-family: uictfonttextstylebody, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 19.933334350585938px; padding: 0in;">Oil futures prices have jumped more than ten percent due to a recent drone attack in Saudi Arabia that has stopped the production of over fifty percent of the oil that comes out of the country. For more information on the attacks, visit </span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/%202019/09/20/oil-drone-attack-damage-revealed-at-saudi-aramco-facility.html" style="color: purple;">https://www.cnbc.com/ 2019/09/20/oil-drone-attack-damage-revealed-at-saudi-aramco-facility.html</a>. <span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #201f1e; font-family: uictfonttextstylebody, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 19.933334350585938px; padding: 0in;">The effects of this devastating attack will be felt for weeks, but Saudi Arabia expects to have repairs complete and full production re-established by November. While Saudi Arabia is not the primary oil supplier for the United States, these attacks will have an impact on the short term oil supply and costs in the United States and in markets around the world. A fifty percent drop in Saudi Arabian oil exports represents an immediate constriction of 8% of the total worldwide oil exports. For a list of oil exporters and their production levels, see </span><a href="http://www.worldstopexports.com/worlds-top-oil-exports-country/" style="color: purple;">http://www.worldstopexports.com/worlds-top-oil-exports-country/</a>. <span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #201f1e; font-family: uictfonttextstylebody, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 19.933334350585938px; padding: 0in;">The immediate impact to the U.S. markets was an 11% jump in oil prices while the world markets experienced a 13% increase. Additionally, the immediate loss of 8% of worldwide oil exports for approximately two months is the threat of retaliation against Iran by either Saudi Arabia or the United States. In response to the attack, the United States is sending troops to Saudi Arabia in hopes of deterring further attacks and has taken the extremely rare step of placing sanction on Iran’s central bank (</span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-sanctions-on-iranian-national-bank-11568990939" style="color: purple;">https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-imposes-sanctions-on-iranian-national-bank-11568990939</a>).<span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #201f1e; font-family: uictfonttextstylebody, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 19.933334350585938px; padding: 0in;"> Even though many experts do not expect Saudi Arabia to retaliate militarily due to the weakness of Saudi Arabia’s military compared to Iran’s, the oil market is extremely sensitive to world events and any potential for supply disruptions. Since the United States has become a net exporter of oil, ranking as the eighth largest oil exporter, U.S. internal oil prices will not see as significant of price variations as when the U.S. still imported oil. However, the increased demand for U.S. oil may lead to additional oil being exported versus remaining in the U.S. market. This will result in an increase in prices for oil in the United States. To combat this, President Trump has authorized the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This creates interesting movements when applied to the Ricardian trade model. Because of the reduction in the global availability of crude oil, the PPF for oil production in Saudi Arabia is going to shift away from the curve. </span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #201f1e; font-family: uictfonttextstylebody, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 19.933334350585938px;">Supply shocks, the aftershocks of quick reductions supply, have caused prices of products that are intertwined with oil to jump. Additionally, the non-tangible impact of the fear of further oil supply interruptions has led to speculative increases in oil prices. By allowing the release of the oil in the United States, President Trump is hoping to minimize the impact to the United States supply curve in order to maintain stable markets in the United States. The Ricardian model helps us understand the multi-market impacts of this sudden supply reduction as well as the impact on the U.S. markets with the target increase of supply in the internal U.S. market.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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